Country deep-dive

Vietnam

Startups mapped

7.3%

Of ASEAN-6

1,148

STARTUPS ACROSS ASEAN-6

Current State

Energy Security and Grid-constrained Growth

Vietnam's ~10% annual GDP growth target needs electricity to expand just as fast – and it is not. Power demand rose 9.85% year-on-year in H1 2026 against a grid still 57.2% coal-fed. Transmission congestion between the renewable-rich central region and northern demand centres is forcing curtailment, as renewables reach 26.8% of installed capacity.

Further, there is a fuel security problem: Vietnam sources ~85% of its crude oil imports from the Middle East, and independent estimates put its total reserves at around one month of supply. When the 2026 Middle East energy shock hit, the government responded by renewing its tilt toward coal.

Carbon Compliance, Green Finance, and Export Access

A pilot emissions trading system covering 110 facilities and a domestic carbon exchange covering 92 firms (first trade on 29 June 2026, ~US$5/tCO2e) are being built as two external forces bear down: the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism entering its definitive phase for steel, and the EU Deforestation Regulation applying to large and medium operators from 30 December 2026.

A first legally binding green taxonomy underpins VND828 trillion in labelled green credit, though the domestic carbon price itself imposes little direct cost before the full market starts in 2029. So the real near-term driver for exporters is EU market access, not the domestic price signal.

Mobility Transition and Climate Resilience

Hanoi plans to eventually bar petrol two-wheelers from its Ring Road 1 core, forcing residents there onto electric ones, though the real phase-out has been pushed to 2028-29. Ho Chi Minh City's push is narrower and sector-specific: the city has proposed converting ~400,000 ride-hailing and delivery motorbikes to electric and barring petrol riders from signing new platform contracts from 2026.

Climate resilience is a separate, more rural story. A severe 2025 disaster year with 19 tropical systems leaving 409 dead or missing and causing over US$3.47bn in losses has pushed Mekong Delta adaptation and agricultural insurance reform up the fiscal agenda. However, crop insurance penetration remains near-nil despite subsidies of up to 90%.

Ambition

MEDIUM Term (through 2030)

Nationally Determined Contribution (2022)

Target: the current NDC's unconditional emissions target, which the Climate Action Tracker puts at ~878 MtCO2e by 2030 (~629 MtCO2e conditional on international support), with over 30 GW of coal retained to 2030

Politburo Resolution 70-NQ/TW

Target: a 25–30% renewables share of primary energy by 2030.

Power Development Plan VIII (PDP8 - revised)

Target: solar capacity of 46–73 GW and battery storage of 10,000-16,300 MW (up from 300 MW) by 2030; offshore wind of ~6 GW by 2030, rising to up to 17 GW by 2035

ADAPTATION

National Adaptation Plan (2021-2030)

Updated and approved via Prime Minister Decision No. 1422/QĐ-TTg (19 November 2024), covering water and land management, climate-smart agriculture, forest and ecosystem protection, infrastructure, and health, organised around six regional priority groups.

There is a ~VND32.6 trillion domestic package covering eight projects in the Mekong Delta through 2030, and a World Bank operation (MERIT) that has been scaled back significantly from an original US$741 million across ten provinces to US$231 million across four, and still has not been approved. Both are anchored by a Politburo resolution from April 2026 that formally makes the Mekong Delta a fiscal priority.

Long Term (through 2050)

Net zero Pledge

Target: net zero by 2050 – framed by the government as a domestic obligation, not a pledge contingent on outside finance.

NDC 3.0

This is the bridging instrument for 2026-2035. It remains in technical consultation and has not yet been finalised or submitted to the UNFCCC. A draft target has circulated since January 2026 – a reported 34.6% emissions cut by 2030 and 41.7% by 2035 against business-as-usual.

Select Green Economyu Initiatives and Innovation Drivers

Direct Power Purchase and Self-consumption Solar Decrees (Decrees 57 and 58/2025)

MOIT (Ministry Of Industry and Trade)

Decree 57 enables physical and virtual direct power purchase agreements for large consumers from 200,000 kWh a month. Decree 58 sets up a self-production and self- consumption framework for rooftop solar. Vietnam's first grid-connected DPPA went live in June 2026 (Samsung–TTC). EVN, the counterparty settling every virtual DPPA's contract-for-difference, carries accumulated losses the state is now addressing through a ~VND44.8tn mechanism.

Pilot Emissions Trading System and Carbon Exchange (Decree 119/2025; Decree 29/2026)

MAE (Ministry of Agriculture and Environment); MOF (Ministry of Finance)/SSC (State Securities Commission)

110 facilities hold free intensity-based allowances (~511 Mt for 2025–2026). The exchange launched 29 June 2026 at roughly US$5/tCO2e, with a full market from 2029. Free allocation plus that low price means little near-term compliance cost domestically. The real driver for covered firms is CBAM market access, which turns emissions measurement and quota tracking into a requirement now.

EU Deforestation Regulation National Traceability Database and Export Compliance Regime

MAE; provincial authorities

A national coffee database (launched December 2024) tracks which farm plot a shipment came from, and is now scaling to rubber, pepper and cocoa. Provincial forest-boundary maps (due 31 December 2026), supply the proof of where forest land actually is, so a plot can be checked against it. Together, they are what large and medium operators will need to meet the EU's 30 December 2026 compliance deadline.

Mekong Delta Adaptation Finance and Agricultural-insurance Reform

MAE, MOF, provincial governments; World Bank (MERIT)

Politburo Conclusion 26-KL/TW frames the delta as a fiscal priority through two channels: a domestically funded ~VND32.6tn, eight-project 2026-2030 package; and the World Bank's restructured ~US$231M MERIT operation (still at appraisal). They sit alongside a 2026 risk-based capital regime for insurers generally.

Revised Power Development Plan VIII (PDP8) (Decision 768/QD-TTg, 2025)

MOIT

The April 2025 revision raised 2030 targets sharply: solar to 46-73 GW; battery storage from 300 MW to 10,000-16,300 MW; and offshore wind to up to 17 GW; while reintroducing nuclear to Vietnam’s power plan (after nearly a decade of being excluded). It sets the capacity ceiling every other initiative operates under.

Directive 20 Two-wheeler Phase-out and Circular 92/2025

Prime Minister; Hanoi People's Committee/Council; MAE

Circular 92/2025 sets a nationwide motorcycle emission standard effective 30 June 2026. Directive 20 set Hanoi toward phasing petrol two-wheelers out of Ring Road 1. Hanoi's scheme scaled back to a weekend-evening pilot in one lakeside zone, and pushing the real Ring Road 1 phase-out to 2028-2029.

Opportunities

Behind-the-meter Solar+storage and DPPA Procurement for Export Manufacturing Zones

Export factories cannot reliably buy clean power off a congested, curtailment-prone grid. So procurement by corporates, especially FDI export manufacturers, is moving to the behind-the-meter and contracted layer.

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Demand signals

Samsung–TTC's first grid-connected DPPA (June 2026)
Rooftop solar cuts electricity costs 20-40% on a 4-6 year payback across 324 operational industrial parks.

Innovation opportunities

Balance sheet-light rooftop-solar financing (own-and-operate/PPA models)
Grid-connected DPPA origination, CfD settlement, and generation/load forecasting
Behind-the-meter storage for demand charge savings
Process heat electrification and fuel switching (electric boilers, heat pumps, and thermal batteries) for textile and food processing

Carbon MRV, Emissions Accounting, and Compliance Verification for the ETS and CBAM

Vietnam's carbon-intensive manufacturers have two data obligations: domestic ETS compliance and CBAM export market access.

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Demand signals

Vietnamese steel is more carbon-intensive than the EU's own benchmark, which creates real CBAM cost. But producers have an incentive to verify: their actual emissions sit below the default value the EU assigns unverified imports like China's, so verification replaces a worse number with a better one.
The EU buys ~17.5% of Vietnam's steel exports. Demand is clearest among mid-sized exporters who lack the in-house capability to verify themselves.

Innovation opportunities

ETS allowance management and quota tracking software
CBAM embedded emissions data and documentation for steel/aluminium exporters
Automated emissions accounting

EUDR and ESPR Supply Chain Traceability for Coffee, Timber, and Textile Exporters

Smallholder plots across coffee, rubber, and timber are not mapped to the EU's new standard. The state database covers registry, not farm-level verification. EUDR compliance is deferred to 30 June 2027 for micro/small operators. ESPR's textile rule has not been adopted, with a European Commission proposal only expected in late 2026 and indicative adoption in 2027.

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Demand signals

Only ~10% of coffee smallholders hold plot-level records, and nearly 60% do not keep consistent harvest records.

Innovation opportunities

Smallholder plot capture and geolocation feeding the national database
Satellite deforestation verification
Traceability and agronomy compliance services
Textile product circularity data and Digital Product Passport tools

Financed Electric Two-wheeler Transition for Gig and Low-income Riders

The two largest cities, Hanoi and HCMC, are moving petrol motorbikes off the road. The near-term market is in the financing gap.

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Demand signals

The 6.9 million motorbikes in Hanoi alone eventually have to switch.
HCMC has proposed converting ~400,000 ride-hailing/ delivery motorbikes and has approved ~50 sites for battery-swap cabinets.
Hanoi's draft subsidy grants up to VND20M (poor) or VND15M (near-poor) households.

Innovation opportunities

Earnings-based financing and lease-to-own for owner-operators
Battery-swap networks for delivery/ride-hail fleets
Trade-in and scrappage logistics for retired petrol bikes

Agricultural Insurane Data and Embedded Risk Finance Infrastructure for Delta Crops

2025's disaster losses fell almost entirely on uninsured households. The market has product validation: pilots proving rainfall index and rice cover can be issued and pay claims, but not business model validation (renewal rates, acquisition costs, and loss ratios at scale).

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Demand signals

22,000+ agricultural cooperatives and 34,000+ farmer groups.
Only a few thousand individual farmers nationwide carry crop insurance against a 13.7-million-person agricultural workforce.

Innovation opportunities

Carrier enablement for rice and coffee index products (design, filing, pricing, and operation)
Risk data, basis-risk analytics, and claims automation
Affordable, low-premium index products sized to smallholder budgets

Financed Charging Infrastructure and Ecosystem Services for Passenger EVs

Sustaining EV uptake will require expanding charging infrastructure alongside continued domestic policy support.

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Demand signals

Four-wheeler EV sales share rose sharply in 2025, roughly doubling from 2024 levels (close to 40%).
VinFast's EV deliveries grew ~102% year-over-year in 2025.
Separately, Vingroup (VinFast's parent company) has proposed up to ~US$30bn for ~20.5 GW of generation capacity by 2030 (~47.5 GW by 2035), a mix of renewables and a contested gas-fired component still under review.

Innovation opportunities

Third-party and interoperable charging network operation and payments
Second-life and recycling infrastructure for the EV battery volume
Fleet, insurance, and maintenance software for ride-hailing and corporate EV fleets